Date
May 4-6, 2009
Location
National Hurricane Center
Miami, FL
Purpose
The purpose of this workshop is to bring together expertise in the hurricane research and operational communities in order to launch a concerted diagnostics activity to improve NHC's numerical guidance for track, intensity and structure. This activity is meant to provide important feedback to both operational model developers for near term transition into operations and to research modelers to develop useful methods for assessing forecast quality in various phases of model development. Observations from both satellite and in situ platforms and model verification are critical to assist this effort. Contributions from these communities are critical to the success of this effort.
The diagnostics workshop was held at NHC May 4-6, 2009 in conjunction with the HFIP High Resolution Hurricane Test Workshop on May 7-8, 2009.
Agenda and Presentations
Monday, 4 May 2009
0830-0900: Continental breakfast
0900-0930: Welcome and opening remarks, purpose of the workshop,
goals (
Naomi Surgi,
Mark DeMaria)
0930-1000:
Operational Considerations for hurricane model diagnostics/ verification (Richard Pasch, TPC/NHC)
1000-1030:
Operational hurricane model diagnostics at EMC (Vijay Tallapragada, NCEP/EMC)
1030-1100:
Statistical Evaluation of the Response of Intensity to Large-Scale Forcing in the 2008 HWRF model (Mark DeMaria,
NOAA/NESDIS/STAR & Brian McNoldy, CIRA/CSU)
1100-1130:
Hydrostatic vs Non-hydrostatic HWRF Energy Budget Sensitivity (Kate Mclay, CIRA/CSU)
1130-0100: LUNCH
0100-0130:
Verification of model wind structure and rainfall forecasts for 2008 ATL storms (Tim Marchok, OAR/GFDL)
0130-0200:
Tropical cyclone diagnostic developments at ESRL -- tracking does matter! (Mike Fiorino, OAR/ESRL)
0200-0230:
The sensitivity of surface fluxes on HWRF track and intensity forecasts (Young Kwon, NCEP/EMC)
0230-0300:
Verification techniques for high resolution model forecasts (Barb Brown, JNT/NCAR)
0300-0315: BREAK
0315-0345:
Diagnostics for high resolution hurricane model (Gopal Sundar, AOML/HRD & Thiago Quirino, AOML/HRD)
0345-0415:
Convective scale diagnostics (Rob Rogers/AOML/HRD)
0415-0445:
Multi-model diagnostics (Krish/FSU )
0445-0530: Discussion
Tuesday, 5 May 2009
0830-0900: Continental breakfast
0900-0930: Uncertainties in hurricane intensity estimation by the
operational aircraft reconnaissance (Fuqing Zhang, PSU,
Meng Zhang, Juan Fang and Sim Aberson, AOML/HRD)
0930-1000:
Diagnostics of the impact of sea spray on storm structure (Jian-Wen Bao, OAR/ESRL)
1000-1030:
Land surface coupling in hurricane models and diagnostics for land falling hurricanes (Robert Tuleya, SAIC/EMC/ODU)
1030-1100:
Assessing Sensitivities of Ocean Model Parameterizations: Taylor Diagrams (Nick Shay/RSMAS)
1100-1130:
Diagnostics for the ocean model component of coupled hurricane models (Rich Yablonsky & Isaac Ginis, URI)
1130-1200:
Ocean parameters for hurricane prediction and diagnostics for HWRF-HYCOM simulations (Hyun-Sook Kim, MMB/EMC)
1200-0130: LUNCH
0130-0300: Discussion * (see list of topics)
0300-0330: BREAK
0330-0500: Discussion * (see list of topics)
Wednesday, 6 May 2009
0830-0900: Continental breakfast
0900-1200: Discuss recommendations / Wrap up
* Suggested topics for discussion
1. Coordination with the OAR-NESDIS collaborative research
project on dynamical and statistical hurricane model
evaluation
2. Methods for sharing data and software
3. Updates to the HFIP diagnostics plan/HFIP baselines
4. Vortex tracking algorithm(s)
5. Required output for diagnostic analyses
6. Project reporting and collaboration